The second quarter of 2024 saw a positive turn for global real estate returns, signaling a potential recovery after two consecutive years of losses. Low interest rates had previously caused a surge in real estate values, with total returns reaching an impressive 5.0% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of 2021 and 17.8% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2022 – figures that were well above long-term averages.
However, as interest rates began to rise, these gains were erased, bringing real estate values back down to 2018 levels globally. Now, with the market correction nearing completion, it may be an opportune time for investors to reconsider this asset class. Historically, real estate has provided stable income returns and portfolio diversification benefits over the long term, and it has also shown robust returns during recovery periods. For example, after the early 90s recession, investors saw a 76% cumulative return over the next five years. Following the dot-com bust, the five-year cumulative total return was 98%, and after the Global Financial Crisis, it was 86%.
In the second quarter of 2024, global real estate values saw a moderate decline of 0.74%, the lowest quarterly adjustment in the past two years. This was offset by income returns of 1.07%, resulting in a positive total return of 0.33%, the first positive quarter since the second quarter of 2022. Out of the 15 global markets in the MSCI Global Property Index, the majority saw an increase in real estate values for the first time since the second quarter of 2022. Eight markets, including Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Southern Europe, the Nordics, the Netherlands, France, and the UK experienced value increases compared to the previous quarter. Six markets saw value losses between 0.3% and 1.5%, all of which were lower than in the first quarter of 2024. Only Australia recorded a larger decline in the second quarter compared to the first, with a 4.2% correction that brought its valuations more in line with its peers. However, it’s important to note that changes in capital values are just one component of real estate returns. Historically, the larger component of total returns has been income. This highlights the importance of considering both capital and income aspects when evaluating real estate investments.
Overall, in the second quarter of 2024, total returns were positive in 12 out of 15 countries in the MSCI Global Property Index. They were flat in the US (-0.09%), slightly negative in Ireland (-0.22%), and significantly negative in Australia (-3.07%). However, preliminary data from the NCREIF ODCE index (a capitalization-weighted, gross-of-fee, time-weighted return index) showed positive total returns for the US (0.25%). With values beginning to rebound, we expect the positive trajectory in total returns to continue.
As for the outlook in the Asia Pacific region, there are signs of a potential rebound in real estate investment globally after two slow years. However, China and Japan may face challenges. In the third quarter of 2024, China and Japan accounted for 27% and 15% of the $7.5 billion in cross-border inflows in the Asia Pacific region. While over half of Japan’s inflows came from global sources, most of China’s came from within the region, particularly from Hong Kong and Singapore. However, both countries face high debt costs and other factors that may hinder a strong rebound in real estate capital inflows.
In China, there has been a significant decline in interest from the West over the past couple of years due to geopolitical and economic concerns. Despite a recent major stimulus package from Beijing, interest is unlikely to return anytime soon, as the market has been stagnant due to price dislocation, geopolitical risk, and a lack of liquidity. Since 2021, China has also been facing a property crisis exacerbated by the collapse of Evergrande. This has led to many European investors avoiding China and Hong Kong, regardless of potential returns. Additionally, China’s domestic property crisis persists, with high office vacancies and low rental yields, ongoing issues with failing developers, and government interventions.
In Japan, the situation is different as the country remains an outlier in terms of interest rate policies. While major markets like the US have cut interest rates to boost property investment, Japan has not. As a result, the broader Japanese property sector is losing its appeal, and interest rate policies and limited cap rate compression have made it less attractive. In July, the Bank of Japan raised borrowing rates for the first time since 2007 to control inflation, further reducing market attractiveness. This hike has prevented cap rate compression, meaning property prices haven’t risen, forcing real estate holders to rely on historically low-income yields. However, senior housing remains an attractive niche due to Japan’s aging population, with 29% of the population aged 65 or over. These assets are small and require an amalgamation strategy by investors.
Meanwhile, in Australia, the purpose-built student accommodation (PBSA) market has great potential due to a significant housing shortage. Currently, only 20% of students in Melbourne and Sydney can be accommodated by universities, forcing the rest to seek private rentals. Additionally, real estate debt in Australia offers appealing risk-adjusted returns, with funding gaps in construction making financing difficult for many developers. As a result, we are looking at sectors like logistics or PBSA, where we see long-term growth opportunities.
Overall, the real estate market appears to be stabilizing in terms of valuations and transaction market pricing. This suggests that the market may be near its bottom, but it’s important to note that these signals alone do not indicate an attractive entry point. For market pricing and valuations to increase, we would ideally see declining interest rates and strengthening property fundamentals. Most developed market central banks are beginning to taper interest rates, which should put downward pressure on financing rates, discount rates, and property capitalization rates, thereby boosting the value of real estate assets. Additionally, a pullback in construction activity across sectors bodes well for property fundamentals in the medium term. With supply headwinds waning, markets with positive demand due to population growth or structural changes, such as e-commerce, are set to see increased occupancies in the medium term. Historically, occupancies and rent growth are well correlated, providing investors with opportunities to gain from increased occupancies, rents, and the associated rise in property values.
The demand for condos in Singapore remains consistently high, largely due to the island nation’s limited land availability. As the population continues to grow rapidly, Singapore faces ongoing challenges in finding space for development. This has resulted in strict land use policies and a competitive real estate market, where property prices are continually on the rise. As a result, investing in condos, specifically, has become a highly profitable opportunity, promising significant capital appreciation. With numerous Singapore projects in the works, the demand for condos is expected to remain strong in the foreseeable future.
While the outlook for global private real estate appears to be improving, it’s important to note that not all markets and property types will perform equally well. For instance, the US office market still faces significant challenges, and a broad recovery in that segment seems highly unlikely in the near term. This underscores the importance of research and selectivity when investing in real estate, as it is crucial to consider market conditions and property types. In an uncertain economic and geopolitical environment, additional risks are inevitable, but this applies to all asset classes. Over the past two years, the weight of real estate in investors’ portfolios has significantly decreased due to resetting real estate values and a record stock market. Today, it may be beneficial for investors to consider allocating fresh funds to the private real estate market to achieve a strategic weighting. Over the long term, private real estate offers low correlations to other asset classes, strong income returns, and a degree of inflation hedging. While there may be bumps in the road, we believe the market is beginning to look up, presenting excellent investment opportunities for savvy investors.…